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NBA Rookie Report - Week 4

By Carl Dispoto on Saturday, 21st November 2009

NBA Rookie ReportThe perspective on this year’s rookies is becoming clearer and, as a result, these rankings are finding their format.

For the remainder on the season, the rankings will focus in-depth on the rookies who should be owned in standard leagues with some brief notes on those who are on the fringe and why.

As always, rankings are meant to reflect players’ values for the remainder for the rest of the season and not value thusfar.

(All positions are based on Yahoo! eligibility.)

mil3Brandon Jennings (PG, Milwaukee Bucks): Jennings’ reign atop the rookie class doesn’t appear like it will end any time soon. He leads all rookies with 24.8 points, 2.7 3-pointers and 5.8 assists per game.

Jennings is shooting 48 percent from the floor and 79 percent from the line. He’s collecting 1.1 steals per game and his 4.7 rebounds per game trail only forwards Terrence Williams and DeJuan Blair among rookies.

And just in case you thought he was slowing down, he’s averaging 32.8 points, 4.0 3-pointers, 7.5 assists and 5.0 rebounds in his last four games.

Even though Michael Redd is expected to return for the Bucks this weekend, it shouldn’t hamper the value of Jennings, who has become the team’s sparkplug. Plus, Andruw Bogut will miss the next month with a leg injury, freeing up any shots Redd may have taken away from Jennings.

Expect Jennings and Redd to work well together and be devastating backcourt combination from the 3-point line.

sac5Tyreke Evans (PG/SG, Sacramento Kings): Evans has taken over as the primary offensive weapon for the Kings, averaging 21.7 points and 4.8 assists in his last six games. He’s added nearly 1.7 steals and one 3-pointer per game during that stretch.

Evans led all rookies by playing 37.8 minutes per game over the past two weeks and he’s been making the most of it, averaging 17.2 shots – second only to Jennings among rookies – and a rookie-leading 7.3 free throw attempts.

While Evans has the awful FG% (.407) expected of most rookie guards, his .758 FT% is misleading as he’s made 84 percent of his free throws in the last six games.

Evans has been nearly as valuable as Jennings over the past two weeks. He will have to adjust once Kevin Martin returns in six weeks, but has already established himself as a key member of the team and that should not change.

gsw2Stephen Curry (PG/SG, Golden State Warriors): Curry has been a yo-yo on these rankings, much like his playing time under Don Nelson.

But after Stephen Jackson was traded to Charlotte in exchange for Raja Bell, who will likely undergo season-ending wrist surgery, Curry’s value seems stable. Furthermore, a rumored trade of Monta Ellis would make Curry the team’s number one guard (depending, of course, on who the Warriors got in return).

While only averaging 9.3 points in 11 games, Curry has handed out 4.9 assists to go with 1.4 steals and nearly one 3-pointer. He’s shooting 49 percent from the floor, though his 67 percent free-throw percentage could use a boost.

In two games since Jackson was traded, Curry has scored 27 points on 10-of-20 shooting with three 3-pointers, 14 assists, five rebounds and four steals.

mint3Jonny Flynn (PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves): Flynn has been in a bit of a slump of late, but he’s still getting close to 30 minutes per game and there is no reason that should change.

Despite scoring just 30 points in his last three games, Flynn is still third among rookies in scoring (13.8) and averaging 3.2 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 1.3 steals. His primary flaw is that he has more turnovers (43) than assists (38) – not a good sign for a rookie point guard.

The inability to control the ball may lead to Flynn losing time to veteran guard Ramon Sessions. But he’ll still get plenty of burn and contribute more than most rookie who have to battle for time on deeper teams.

lac3Blake Griffin (SF/PF, Los Angeles Clippers): Even though he has yet to play a game, the thought of Griffin routinely putting up double-doubled once he returns next month is enough to land him above the rest of the rookie class.

denn2Ty Lawson (PG/SG, Denver Nuggets): Give credit to Lawson. Even with the return of J.R. Earl Smith III he has remained a valuable part of the Nuggets. While his minute have decreased – playing less than 23 minutes in four straight games – he’s keeping himself valuable.

In four games since Smith’s return from suspension, Lawson has handed out 17 assists and registered five steals. He’s not scoring much but appears to be a regular part of the Nuggets rotation.

Lawson’s already getting more minutes than veteran Anthony Carter and is just a Chauncey Billups or Smith injury away from a more significant role.

okc2James Harden (PG/SG, Oklahoma City Thunder): It’s no secret that the Thunder have high hopes for Harden as a weapon off the bench this season. And while he failed to score double-digits in his first 11 games, he erupted for 24 points, six 3-pointers, three assists and a steal on Wednesday.
When it comes to rookies in fantasy basketball, opportunity is 90 percent of the equation. I’d rather have a rookie I know will get minutes than one who will play 30 minutes one week and not see the court the next.

With Harden, he’ll get plenty of chances and he’s averaging 1.7 3-pointers, 2.8 assists and nearly one steal per game despite less than 20 minutes. As the team gains faith in him, he’ll emerge into a solid fantasy point guard along the lines of Mario Chalmers.

(NOTE: I stupidly noted last week that Harden may gain value with the departure of Allen Iverson. I got my Grizzlies and Thunder confused. For shame.)

nohDarren Collison (PG, SG, New Orleans Hornets): As terrible as Chris Paul’s ankle injury was for fantasy owners, it’s meant a significant boost for Collison, who went for irrelevance to immediate value.

Collison has scored in double figures in five straight games and collected 19 assists and seven steals during that span. For the next three weeks or so he has an opportunity to prove he can remain a significant part of the Hornets once Paul returns.

nj3Terrence Williams (SG/SF/PG, New Jersey Nets): It’s hard to ignore any rookie getting around 30 minutes per game, even though Williams has been inefficient this season.

Although he’s averaging double figures in scoring and more than six rebounds per game, Williams is hooting just 35 percent from the floor and 64 percent from the line. Even though he’s chipping in nearly one steal and one 3-pointer per game, he has little value unless his percentages vastly improve.

chib2Taj Gibson (SF/PG, Chicago Bulls): Much like the player he replaced – Tyrus Thomas – Gibson is showing a penchant for wild inconsistency.

After two stellar games last week, he played less than 20 minutes in a pair of games this week and had just six points and eight rebounds. It gets worse: Thomas should be back soon and Gibson hasn’t shown that he can be consistent enough to remain in the starting lineup.

Missed the cut:

uta1Eric Maynor (PG/SG, Utah Jazz): Briefly a hot pickup, Deron Williams returned to the Jazz lineup on Thursday and Maynor went scoreless in 16 minutes. It’s hard to believe a veteran coach like Jerry Sloan would favor Maynor over a defensive stalwart like Ronnie Brewer.

Still, should Williams or Brewer miss any games, it appears Maynor will be the beneficiary of major minutes.

sa2DeJuan Blair (SF/PF, San Antonio Spurs): Despite dwindling minutes, there is still a lot to like about Blair’s outstanding rebound rate. He may see increased minutes later in the season if the Spurs rest their older veterans, but until then he’s just wasting roster space.

hour2Chase Budinger (SF/PF, Houston Rockets): Inconsistent minutes and the eventual return of Tracy McGrady hurt the long-term value of Budinger, who is a one-dimensional player as he only contributes in 3-pointers anyway.

ny3Tony Douglas (PG/SG, New York Knicks): Nate Robinson has returned from injury and Allen Iverson is reportedly going to sign with the Knicks. Such is the end of any hopes for Douglas to retain fantasy value this season.


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