Injuries and lineup changes are starting to thrust even more rookies into fantasy value than expected.
FantasyBasketballReport.com’s Carl Dispoto brings you another editon of NBA Rookie Report.
Keep in mind these rankings reflect value for the remainder of the season and not a ranking of performance thus far.
Brandon Jennings (PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks): Jennings has a stranglehold on the position of most valuable fantasy basketball rookie. Through six games, he’s averaging 20.7 points, 1.7 3-pointers, 5.2 assists and 1.3 steals while shooting 46 percent from the floor and 86 percent from the line.
Jennings is 26th on Basketball Monster’s player rater – a far cry above any other rookie. He’s already an invaluable part of the Bucks and will remain one of their biggest weapons even after Michael Redd returns from a sore knee.
Tyreke Evans (SG, Sacramento Kings): Evans rocketed from seventh to second among rookies after Kevin Martin’s fractured wrist required surgery that will keep the King’s leading scorer sidelined for eight weeks.
Evans has already given a glimpse of what he can do with the added opportunities, averaging 25 points, 6.3 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 1.0 3-pointers and 1.3 steals in his last three games.
For the season, Evans is averaging more minutes than any other rookie, with his 32.6 narrowly edging Jennings’ 32.5.
For the next couple of months, Evans will be neck-and-neck with Jennings for fantasy value among rookies. While the return of Martin will impact Evans’ role, he’s gaining valuable experience that should help maintain his fantasy relevance throughout the season.
The one negative aspect that may hold Evans back from eclipsing Jennings is an awful .385 FG%. Even during the past week, he has made just 40 percent of his shots, though he’s making 86 percent of his free throws this season. Despite the lack of efficiency, Evans is providing Top 25 roto value over the past two weeks.
Jonny Flynn (PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves): Flynn has scored in double figures in each of Minnesota’s nine games, averaging 15 points, 0.8 3-pointers, 3.2 assists and 1.2 steals in 27.9 minutes per game with solid percentages.
The Timberwolves announced this week that Flynn and Ramon Sessions will not spend much time together. The franchise wants Flynn to focus on being a point guard, which can only help his assist numbers.
It’s hard to expect Flynn’s shooting percentage to remain at the current level. He’ll probably finish the season around 42 percent or so, a drop which can be offset by picking up production in other areas.
The biggest positive for Flynn is that he’ll get every opportunity to succeed with a franchise trying to prove it didn’t completely botch the draft.
Stephen Curry (PG/SG, Golden State Warriors): Curry has seen his playing time dissipate in the past five games after playing more than 35 minutes in his first two. He’s been especially ineffective for the past four games and has lost his starting job to Anthony Morrow.
Such is life as a rookie in the fickle rotation of Don Nelson.
Still, there is quite a bit to like about Curry, who is averaging 5.4 assists and 1.3 steals. But his highly-touted scoring ability has yet to develop as he’s shooting just 38 percent from the floor over the past two weeks.
Curry’s remaining value lies in his team. The Warriors play a lot of high-scoring contests and are desperately trying to trade Stephen Jackson, which would free 30 minutes per game of playing time, some of which may fall Curry’s way. Nelson has currently soured on Curry, which isn’t great for his immediate prospects. But it’s a long season and the Warriors – off to a 2-5 start – may be turning to the team’s youth sooner rather than later.
Blake Griffin (SF/PF, Los Angeles Clippers): Griffin is still MIA and weeks away from stepping on the court, but the remaining rookies still can’t match the value he’ll bring once he returns.
Griffin’s preseason projections of 16.7 points and 8.6 rebounds mean he’ll still provide plenty of punch in the season’s final four months.
The remaining rookies – even those that are playing well – have a few too many obstacles in their way to match the value of a player who should consistently flirt with double-doubles.
Taj Gibson (SF/PF, Chicago Bulls): Few expected Taj Gibson to contribute to the Bulls this season, and yet he’s already in the starting lineup and producing. Tyrus Thomas inability to properly lift weights is part of the reason, of course.
But Gibson has taken Thomas’ place in the starting lineup and his last two games have been superb – 28 points, 11 rebounds, five steals and three blocks and shooting well over 60 percent from the floor. It would have been difficult to expect more from Thomas himself.
Whispers were that Gibson was ready to supplant the slow-starting Thomas in the starting lineup even before the injury. But Thomas is likely to return in a month and reclaim his spot.
But Gibson is doing a great job of making his case for earning an increased role for the rest of the season. He appears to a high-energy, athletic forward that can rebound and collect steals and blocks … just like Thomas.
Chase Budinger (SG, Houston Rockets): Budinger made his presence after returning with an ankle injury, averaging 11.7 points, 1.7 3-pointers and 4.3 rebounds while shooting 48 percent overall in his last three games.
The Rockets seemed to be an entire team of players who do some little things well. Budinger is one of those guys and one of the little things he does well is shoot 3-pointers.
The only roadblock to Budinger retaining value has Houston’s 3-point bomber is the confusing return of Tracy McGrady. No one knows when McGrady is going to return from whatever injury it is he’s trying to come back from. Really, who can keep track?
But at this stage in his career, McGrady may be more of a facilitator and Budinger may benefit from his return. It’s best left as an open question until the Rockets are at full health.
DeJuan Blair (SF/PF, San Antonio Spurs): Blair remains a rebound machine, grabbing more than seven per game despite playing less than 20 minutes a night. He also averages seven points per game on 60 percent shooting in those limited minutes.
Clearly, the only thing separating him from fantasy stardom is more burn. And Tim Duncan. But even with Duncan sidelined this week, Blair did not get major minutes.
The Spurs are going to bring him along slowly because they are used to their season extending well into May and June. But Blair will get his chances as the season moves along and Duncan needs rest and the points and rebounds will come. Unfortunately, Blair seems incapable of blocking shots with any regularity, so he’s not a true frontcourt powerhouse.
Omri Casspi (SF, Sacramento Kings): Much like Evans, Casspi is getting a chance to prove himself with the awful Kings in the wake of Martin’s injury. He’s averaging 25 minutes per game in his last three and while his numbers aren’t outstanding, he’s made 1.7 3-pointers with 1.3 steals and .563 FG%.
Casspi clearly can’t maintain shooting that efficiently but he’s shown some offensive ability and may develop into a scoring threat with a little more seasoning.
Ty Lawson (PG/SG, Denver Nuggets): Lawson’s value has dwindled dramatically following the return of J.R. “Earl” Smith from suspension.
While still getting around 20 minutes per game, Lawson’s role seems undefined and he has just 20 points in his last three games. His start has been erratic and he’s now stuck in a situation where only an injury can really boost his prospects.
James Harden (PG/SG, Oklahoma City Thunder): It would seem Harden’s value would depend primarily on the ongoing Allen Iverson saga. If Iverson’s gone for good, Harden would get more playing time.
But Harden’s shown potential for assists (3.5 per game), 3-pointers (0.9) and steals (0.8) despite limited minutes. He may see an immediate spike in value if Russell Westbrook takes some time recovering from a sprained ankle.
Terrence Williams (SF/PF, New Jersey Nets): Playing for the most wounded team in the NBA, Williams is getting nearly 30 minutes per game. And while he’s getting valuable playing time, he’s not exactly making his case for Rookie of the Year.
Williams is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 3.5 assists in his last four games. But he’s made just 36 percent of his shots this season and is launching far too many jumpers.
Without seizing the chance while so many Nets regulars are hurt, it’s a good best he’ll find himself with reduced minutes once (if) the team regains full health.
Toney Douglas (PG/SG, New York Knicks): Douglas has been among the top three or four rookies over the past week, averaging 15.8 points and 2.3 3-pointers on 59 percent shooting in his last four games. In his last two games, including a start on Wednesday, he has scored 44 points combined.
While Douglas has made a brief impact, he will eventually struggle, as all rookies do. He can’t keep shooting at a 60 percent clip and he’s unlikely to eclipse Nate Robinson, who will return from an ankle injury shortly and is one of the Knicks’ better players. Douglas just isn’t ready for that time of consistent production yet.
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