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NBA Rookie Report - Week 2

By Carl Dispoto on Saturday, 7th November 2009

rookie reportTwo weeks into the season, only a handful of rookies have shown significant fantasy value with a few more showing flashes of promise. Keep in mind these rankings reflect value for the remainder of the season and not a ranking of performance thus far.

mil1Brandon Jennings (PG/SG, Milwaukee Bucks): It’s a pretty clear-cut case for Jennings, who is leading all rookies minutes per game (34.7), points per game (22.0) and 3-pointers per game (2.3). He’s also averaging 5.3 assists and 1.7 steals.

Jennings has already emerged as a primary weapon for the Bucks and figures to remain to the team’s focal point while Michael Redd deals with a balky left knee.

Expect Jennings’ .480 FG% to plummet and he commits more than three turnovers per game, but he will be a fantasy asset for the remainder of the season.

gsw1Stephen Curry (PG/SG, Golden State Warriors): Curry nearly gets as many minutes as Jennings at 34.3 per game and while he doesn’t score as much, he is filling the stat sheet on a Warriors team that is a fantasy gold mine.

Although he is averaging only 11 points per game, Curry is leading all rookies in assist per game (6.7) and steals per game (2.3) while shooting .556 from the floor. Speed is Curry’s biggest asset and he gets to the basket as well as any rookie in the league, making most of his shots high-percentage layups.

However, Curry has hit 3-of-6 3-pointers in three games, so he’s not exactly one-dimensional.

Curry’s overall game is more balanced than Jennings’ and he could be the most valuable rookie going forward. If Golden State has a roster shakeup that includes trading away Stephen Jackson, Curry may get more chances to score and become an even bigger weapon.

mintJonny Flynn (PG/SG, Minnesota Timberwolves): Flynn has played at least 20 minutes in four of Minnesota’s five games and has shown some consistency, scoring in double figures in each contest. He’s averaging 13.8 points, 3.6 assists and 1.2 steals per game while shooting 50 percent from the floor and 91 percent from the line.

Those are pretty solid numbers and the Timberwolves are awful. Flynn is a significant part of their future and he should get plenty of opportunities to succeed.

The only roadblock on the Minnesota roster would be Ramon Sessions, who has not been getting significant minutes. Still, the T-Wolves spent more than $16 million on Sessions in the offseason and there may be pressure to find him more playing time.

Since Sessions and Flynn can’t really co-exist on the court as both are non-jump shooting guards, any increased time for Sessions would come at the rookie’s expense.

saDeJuan Blair (SF/PF, San Antonio Spurs): Four games into the season, Blair has already proven he is one of the league’s most prolific rebounders. In slightly less than 21 minutes per game, he is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game. Ponder that for a second.

If Blair was getting starter’s minutes – 34 per game – he’d be grabbing 15 rebounds a night. He’s still a newbie learning the NBA game on a veteran team so he won’t get those minutes any time soon.

Unfortunately, Blair has blocked just one shot in four games, which limits his value as a dominant frontcourt fantasy presence. His value his limited to rebounds and his .700-plus FG%, which only a helps a little at only six shot attempts per game.

dennTy Lawson (PG/SG, Denver Nuggets): Lawson was tremendous in his NBA debut, which was followed by three subpar games. He bounced back with 23 points on 9-of-10 shooting in 28 minutes on Wednesday. Such is the erratic life of an NBA rookie.

Lawson’s .580 FG% is skewed by Wednesday’s performance – he’s below .500 in his other four games – and his minutes have been anything but consistent. To make matters worse, J.R. Smith will return from suspension on Tuesday, which will impact Lawson’s opportunities.

Although he has shown an ability to score and is averaging 1.2 steals with an .889 FT%, Lawson’s role remains undefined on a Nuggets’ team that hasn’t played with its full roster.

lac1Blake Griffin (SF/PF, Los Angeles Clippers): Although he has yet to play a game and is probably six weeks away from returning, Griffin is still more valuable than the remaining rookies on this list.

Once Griffin returns from a fractured kneecap, he will immediately become a major part of the Clippers’ rotation. Based on my preseason projections of 16.7 points and 8.6 rebounds, he’ll still provide plenty of punch in the season’s final four months.

The remaining rookies should likely be reserved for deep leagues or looked at cautiously in standard leagues to uncertain roles or some significant shortcomings.

sacTyreke Evans (SG, Sacramento Kings): Evans is getting 31 minutes per game and his workload may increase now than Kevin Martin has a hairline fracture in his left wrist. Martin may or not be out quite a while, depending on what route of recovery he decides to take.

Evans has performed nicely thusfar, averaging 11.3 points 3.6 assists and 1.6 steals. But there are a few red flags that are killing his value. He’s made just 22-of-63 shots from floor, including 1-of-10 3-pointers, and has missed half of his free throws.

Even with increased minutes, it appears Evans’ offensive skills may not be NBA-ready just yet. A point guard who averages 14 points and four assists with no 3-point range and terrible percentages is hardly worth owning.

Evans did have one game where he made 7-of-13 shots and 7-of-8 free throws. But his other four games have been poor and possibly a better indication of what to expect in the short term.

nj1Terrence Williams (SF/PF, New Jersey Nets): The Nets have been hammered by injuries, with Devin Harris, Yi Jianlian, Jarvis Hayes and Chris Douglas-Roberts all sidelined. That leaves more opportunities for Williams, who is already getting more than 26 minutes per game.

Although his percentages are subpar, Williams is averaging 11.2 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. The Nets giving him plenty of minutes in the short term and he could solidify his position by the time Hayes returns in a few weeks.

hourChase Budinger (SG, Houston Rockets): Budinger seems to fit in well on a Rockets team that is more than the sum of its parts. He is averaging 16 minutes per game but coming off his best effort with 17 points in 22 minutes at Utah on Monday.

The immediate downside is that Budinger is currently nursing an ankle injury. But he’s averaging 9.3 points and 1.5 3-pointers while shooting 50 percent overall in limited minutes. If his role continues to increase, he’ll a valuable contributor for those looking for 3-pointers off the waiver wire.

chibTaj Gibson (SF/PF, Chicago Bulls): Gibson’s a curious case as he got limited playing time in the season’s first three games before being named a starter last week. He had his best game of his short career on Thursday with 11 points and seven rebounds with one steal and one block.

I’m not yet buying the idea that Gibson has surpassed Tyrus Thomas in the Bulls rotation. But the fact that he’s already a starter and played 34 minutes last night is reason to pay attention.

Gibson won’t be a stud with major minutes, but 12 points and seven rebounds per game would be nice. He has yet to prove that he can score efficiently, which would help his value tremendously.

sac1Omri Casspi (SF, Sacramento Kings): If Martin chooses surgery as an option, part of the offensive burden could fall on Casspi, who is the NBA’s first player from Israel and improving rapidly.

Casspi has played 19 minutes or more in three of the Kings first five games and has performed well, making 16-of-26 shots, including 4-of-8 3-pointers, with three steals and three blocks. He won’t provide anything other than mild help in points and 3-pointers but is worth keeping an eye on as he works his way into Sacramento’s frontcourt rotation.

okcJames Harden (PG/SG, Oklahoma City Thunder): Harden is averaging just 16.3 minutes per game and the return of Allen Iverson won’t help matters much. But he’s producing one 3-pointer and 3.3 assists in those limited minutes.

Any increase in playing time could see Harden putting up 1.5 3-pointers and five assists per game, which would put him in the Steve Blake/Luke Ridnour family of fantasy value.

torDeMar DeRozan (SG/SF, Toronto Raptors): DeRozan is one of just eight rookies getting more than 20 minutes per game and while he hasn’t had any standout games, he’s done a little of everything.

Looking at his per minute numbers, he’s averaging 11.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 0.9 steals and 0.9 3-pointers per 36 minutes while shooting 50 percent from the floor. If his role on the Raptors increases, he could evolve into a multi-category asset.


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